Last edited by Maurisar
Tuesday, May 12, 2020 | History

3 edition of Thin-slice forecasts of gubernatorial elections found in the catalog.

Thin-slice forecasts of gubernatorial elections

Daniel J. Benjamin

Thin-slice forecasts of gubernatorial elections

by Daniel J. Benjamin

  • 182 Want to read
  • 15 Currently reading

Published by National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass .
Written in English

    Subjects:
  • Election forecasting -- Econometric models

  • Edition Notes

    StatementDaniel J. Benjamin, Jesse M. Shapiro.
    SeriesNBER working paper series -- no. 12660., Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) -- working paper no. 12660.
    ContributionsShapiro, Jesse., National Bureau of Economic Research.
    The Physical Object
    Pagination37 p. :
    Number of Pages37
    ID Numbers
    Open LibraryOL17631667M
    OCLC/WorldCa76065279

    Inside Elections is a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics, and political developments. Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections The Review of Economics and Statistics, , 91, (3), View citations (13) See also Working Paper () Does (k) eligibility increase saving?: Evidence from propensity score subclassification Journal of Public Economics, , 87, (), View citations (41).

    Governor Elections: Consensus Forecast. A consensus outlook for the gubernatorial elections based on the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by all three of these forecasters are shown in the darkest shade.   Election We have articles about the election. Forecasts Weekly Email Podcast.

    United States gubernatorial elections were held on November 6, in 36 states and three territories. These elections formed part of the United States coinciding elections were the United States Senate elections and the United States House of Representatives last regular gubernatorial elections for all but three of the states took place in   State Elections Forecast Louis Jacobson, Politifact senior correspondent and Governing contributor, makes his predictions based on consultations with multiple experts in .


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Thin-slice forecasts of gubernatorial elections by Daniel J. Benjamin Download PDF EPUB FB2

Pants’ forecasts of elections. The share of participants pre-dicting a Democratic victory is highly related to actual election outcomes and Thin-slice forecasts of gubernatorial elections book account for more than 20% of the variation in two-party vote shares in our sample of elections.

This result survives a wide range of controls, including race, height, and state fixed effects. We showed second silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election outcomes.

The participants' predictions explain more than 20% of the variation in the actual two-party vote share across the 58 elections in our study, and their importance survives a range of controls, including state fixed by:   In specification (7), we predict gubernatorial elections using the Democrat’s share of the two-party vote in the most recent presidential election, but find that this specification has only weak forecasting power.

Shapiro Jesse M. Thin-slice forecasts of gubernatorial outcomes. NBER Working Paper No. November [PMC free article] by: Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections Daniel J.

Benjamin, Jesse M. Shapiro. NBER Working Paper No. Issued in November NBER Program(s): Political Economy We showed second, silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election by: Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections Article in Review of Economics and Statistics 91(33) August with 31 Reads How we measure 'reads'.

THIN-SLICE FORECASTS OF GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS debate, we ensured that stage, lighting, camera, and sound. Downloadable. We showed second, silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election outcomes.

The participants' predictions explain more than 20 percent of the variation in the actual two-party vote share across the 58 elections in our study, and their importance survives a range of controls, including state.

We showed second silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election outcomes.

The participants' predictions explain more than 20% of the variation in the actual two-party vote share across the 58 elections in our study, and their importance survives a range of controls, including state fixed effects.

In order to measure participants’ forecasts of election outcomes, we showed them second video clips of major party gubernatorial candidates.

Participants rated the personal attributes of the candidates, guessed their party affiliation, and predicted. We first use our measure to assess the quality of participants’ forecasts of elections. The share of participants predicting a Democratic victory is highly related to actual election outcomes, and can account for more than 20 percent of the variation in two-party vote shares in our sample of elections.

We showed second, silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election outcomes. The participants' predictions explain more than 20 percent of the variation in the actual two-party vote share across the 58 elections in our study, and their importance survives a Cited by: BibTeX @MISC{Benjamin06thin-sliceforecasts, author = {Daniel J.

Benjamin and Jesse M. Shapiro}, title = {Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series (Working Paper No}, year = {}}. Get this from a library.

Thin-slice forecasts of gubernatorial elections. [Daniel J Benjamin; Jesse Shapiro; National Bureau of Economic Research.] -- We showed second, silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election outcomes.

The participants' predictions. Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections. NBER Working Paper No. w 38 Pages Posted: 6 Apr Last revised: 6 Aug See all articles by Daniel J.

Benjamin Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections. NBER Working Paper No. w Number of pages: 38 Posted: 06 Apr Last Revised: 06 Aug Cited by: BibTeX @MISC{Benjamin06©notice, author = {Daniel J. Benjamin and Jesse M. Shapiro and Nalini Ambady and Chris Chabris and James Choi and Ray Fair and Luis Garicano and Matt Gentzkow and David Laibson and Steve Levitt and Hal Movius and Kevin M.

Murphy and Emily Oster and Jane Risen and Emmanuel Saez and Bruce Sacerdote and Andrei Shleifer and Matt Weinzerl and Rick Wilson. The current ratings for the presidential election from The Cook Political Report. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own presidential election forecast.

March 9: Michigan and NE-2 move from Leans Democratic to Toss Up; Texas moves from Likely to Leans Republican; Iowa, ME-2 and Ohio move from Leans to Likely Republican. “ Thin-slice forecasts of gubernatorial elections.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(3), – Benjamin, Daniel J.

“Do (k)s Increase Saving. Evidence From Propensity Score Subclassification.” Journal of Public Economics 87(), – Rind, Bruce, and Daniel J. Benjamin, Daniel J. and Jesse M. Shapiro. “Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections.” Review of Economics and Statist 3, Berg, Joyce, Robert Forsythe, Forrest Nelson, and Thomas Rietz.

“Results from a Dozen Years of Elections Futures Markets Research.” In Handbook of Experimental Economics Results. Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections with Jesse M. Shapiro: w Published: Daniel J Benjamin & Jesse M Shapiro, "Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol.

91(3), pagescitation courtesy of. –Races domèstiques autòctones de Catalunya. (in Catalan) Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections the variation in the actual two-party vote share across the 58 elections in.

The study of gubernatorial elections is Daniel J Benjamin & Jesse M Shapiro, “Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections” The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pagesDaniel Hamermesh’s Beauty Pays looks at the overall evidence that appearances matter – including in politics.

Professor Rachel Bitecofer Releases Her Eagerly Anticipated Congressional Elections Forecast lowkell Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos. The title of Benjamin's paper, "Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections," refers to a body of literature in psychology about using the "thin slice" technique of using short video clips to measure snap judgments about the person in the clip.